BURSTED: The Most Overrated Underdog? Jasmine Paolini’s Rise Is Built More on Media Hype Than Merit”

When Jasmine Paolini stormed into the tennis spotlight, it felt like a fairy tale — a relatively unknown Italian player making waves in the WTA, defeating bigger names, and capturing the hearts of fans around the world. But as the accolades pile up and headlines proclaim her as the “next big thing” in women’s tennis, it’s time to ask the uncomfortable question: Is Jasmine Paolini truly as good as the media wants us to believe — or are we witnessing the creation of a myth built on sentiment, timing, and hype?

The Rise of a Media Darling

Let’s get something clear: Jasmine Paolini’s rise is admirable. The 5’4” player, born to a Ghanaian mother and Italian father, has defied physical odds in a sport that increasingly rewards tall, powerful athletes. Her agility, shot selection, and resilience have helped her claw her way into the top tiers of the WTA.

But if we strip away the emotional allure of her underdog story, the narrative becomes less inspiring — and more questionable.

In a sport governed by consistency, dominance, and longevity, Paolini’s resume, when objectively scrutinized, lacks the hallmarks of true elite status. One or two Grand Slam quarterfinals (or even a final) do not make a legend, yet the tennis world seems overly eager to christen her as the next face of the game.

Why?

Because stories sell. And the tennis media — desperate for fresh, marketable faces in the post-Serena, post-Barty era — has found its heroine in Paolini, even if her record barely justifies the hype.

Beating the Big Names… Or Benefiting from Their Absence?

Let’s talk about the matches that supposedly defined her breakthrough.

Many of Paolini’s biggest wins have come against players either battling injuries, out of form, or simply not performing at their best. The WTA is notorious for its volatility — a tour where even top players lose in early rounds — and Paolini has surfed that wave perfectly.

But when she’s faced a fully-fit, in-form top seed in the deep rounds of a major? The results have often been humbling. Her loss to Iga Świątek in the Roland Garros final, for instance, was not just a defeat — it was a demolition. Świątek dismantled her with clinical precision, exposing the vast gap between media-crafted darlings and actual champions.

The Statistics Don’t Lie

A closer look at Paolini’s match statistics paints a less flattering picture. Her first-serve percentage is average, her break-point conversion underwhelming, and her unforced error count often climbs when under pressure. These aren’t the numbers of a future world No. 1 — these are the numbers of a top-30 player enjoying a lucky streak of form.

Yet the WTA’s marketing machine would have you believe otherwise. Social media platforms are flooded with Paolini tributes, fan art, and slow-motion videos of her practice routines, all wrapped in a neat package of “tenacity meets talent.” But it’s hard to shake the feeling that much of this is style over substance.

A Product of Timing, Not Greatness

Timing is everything in sports. Paolini’s rise has coincided with a period of flux in women’s tennis. The top players are inconsistent, injuries are rampant, and the door has been wide open for anyone with decent form and mental fortitude to make a run.

Credit to her for seizing the opportunity — but let’s not confuse opportunism with greatness.

Contrast her with Coco Gauff, who won a Grand Slam while facing elite competition. Or Aryna Sabalenka, who has consistently challenged for titles on all surfaces. Compared to them, Paolini’s impact feels temporary, her run the stuff of a good Netflix docuseries, not a long-term legacy.

The Danger of Tokenism

Here’s the uncomfortable part of the conversation: Paolini’s mixed heritage has made her an easy symbol for diversity in a sport long criticized for its lack of representation. She is frequently referred to as a “face of change” in tennis. But using her as a poster child without critically examining her actual achievements is tokenism at its most glaring.

Representation matters — but so does merit. Elevating athletes based on what they symbolize rather than what they’ve earned creates an environment where critical discussion is silenced in the name of progress. That’s not progress — that’s pandering.

Fans React — But Is It Genuine Fandom?

The Paolini phenomenon has sparked a wave of new fans — or at least, a wave of loud ones. Twitter (or X), Instagram, and Reddit are full of threads defending her, glorifying her style, and attacking any criticism as misogynistic or elitist.

But is this fandom built on true appreciation of tennis? Or are we seeing the rise of yet another “stan culture” bubble — the kind that blows up fast and bursts even faster?

Real fandom is built over time — over consistency, rivalries, heartbreak, and triumph. If Paolini loses early in her next few tournaments (as she has often done in the past), will her “fans” stick around? Or will they move on to the next underdog story the WTA serves them?

Can She Prove Us Wrong?

None of this is to say that Jasmine Paolini can’t become a legitimate top-10 staple or even win a Grand Slam. She clearly has the mental toughness and technical skill to challenge higher-ranked players. Her movement, baseline tenacity, and court sense are elite.

But to silence doubters like myself, she’ll have to evolve — and fast. That means improving her serve, adding more aggression to her game, and most importantly, staying consistent across surfaces and tournaments. One good run a year won’t cut it.

She has the potential. But right now, potential is all it is.

Final Thoughts: Stop Manufacturing Legends

The modern tennis world has become too obsessed with creating stars before they earn it. The rush to declare Jasmine Paolini as a revolutionary figure in the sport does her a disservice — it places impossible expectations on her shoulders and distracts from the real work she still needs to do.

Let her be who she is: a hardworking, talented player who has had a few breakthrough moments.

But don’t call her the next big thing — not yet.

Because if this is what “greatness” looks like now, then maybe the bar has been set too low.

What do you think — is Jasmine Paolini the real deal, or just the media’s latest overhyped obsession? Let the debate begin.